Buying Blues?
Three Players in St. Louis to Pay Attention to After Coaching Change
It’s been a busy time for coaching changes in the NHL.
First, the Boston Bruins sacked Jim Montgomery and hired interim coach Joe Sacco to help right the ship after a disappointing start. Not too long after Montgomery’s firing, he was picked up by the St. Louis Blues, who fired coach Drew Bannister to make room for Montgomery on the Blues bench.
It’s hard to determine if those moves will benefit the Bruins and Blues, who just faced off against each other in the 2019 Stanley Cup and have failed to find relevance in the postseason. Justin Giampietro of The Hockey News wrote about whether or not midseason head coach firings turn things around for clubs. As expected, the results tend to be mixed.
This post isn’t going to focus, though, on whether or not Boston and St. Louis’ coaching changes will work. Instead, this post will look at some players on the St. Louis Blues roster and the impact this coaching change will have in fantasy hockey for the remainder of the season.
The Blues have many fantasy-relevant players, with many vital guys highly rostered in Yahoo leagues. Like the team, though, those players have underachieved and underwhelmed in most fantasy league formats (whether categories or points).
Let’s look at three Blues players who may benefit from Montgomery’s arrival in fantasy and why they may be targets for fantasy managers looking for sparks on their respective rosters.
Jake Neighbours, LW, 17% Rostered
Neighbours had a promising 2023-2024 season, his first significant season with the Blues at the NHL level. In 77 games and an average TOI of 15:42, he scored 27 goals and 38 points, suitable for a PTS/G of 0.49. Even though Neighbours PTS/G heavily relied on goals last year, he found fantasy value in other categories.
The 2020 first-round pick was a shot machine last season, with an 18% shot percentage and an average of 1.88 SOG/G. He also was a nice wing option in banger leagues, as he accumulated 138 hits, averaging 1.79 Hits/GP. The plus/minus was rough at -16, but at least that mark was better than his -19 mark in 43 games in 2022-2023.
This season, Neighbours is still getting shots and hits. Despite his S% being down at 15.2%, his SOG/GP is up slightly at 1.92. Thus, even though his shot volume is down, he is at least more accurate with those shots compared to a season ago. Furthermore, his Hits/GP is up to 2.46, a sign that he is still maintaining his physical style of play for the Blues this year.
Unfortunately, he only has four goals and 11 points in 24 games played in 2024-2025. His PTS/G is slightly down to 0.46, and his 82-game points pace is 38, also down from 40 a season ago.
There was some hope that Neighbours would take a step forward this season in fantasy, especially since he was on lines with Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich.
While his secondary assist percentage is up at 50% this year (from 18.2% last season), his 5-on-5 SH% is 6.2%, down from 8.9% a season ago. Thus, Neighbours has struggled to coexist with those primary Blues playmakers, and their -2 plus/minus and 42% CF% together as a line illustrate that point.
Since Monty took over, however, Neighbours has begun playing with Robert Thomas and Buchnevich. The line has been the primary first line in the last three games.
In the Blues’ previous game against the Devils, the line produced a goal, a plus/minus of +1, an SF% of 50%, and a CF% of 44%. Those last two percentages were the best marks of any even-strength forward line against New Jersey.
Neighbours could be a beneficiary of Montgomery’s trust, especially since the former Bruins head coach tends to be more defensive-minded. The 22-year-old Canadian winger is already a fan favorite in St. Louis due to his physical play, and it seems like Monty is as well after two games.
A question mark is Buchnevich, who is listed as day-to-day. Thus, it’ll be interesting to see who joins Neighbours and Thomas on that first line on Sunday if the 29-year-old Russian forward cannot go.
With him available in nearly 83% of Yahoo leagues, Neighbours should be a waiver-wire target for fantasy managers who need help at forward and are also looking for wing players who can boost them in the hits category in banger-league formats.
Philip Broberg, D, 17% Rostered
Broberg was the Oilers' 8th overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, but he had difficulty fitting in Edmonton as he only played in 58 games in the past two years. The Blues sent the former Top-10 pick an offer sheet this offseason, and the Oilers failed to match, resulting in Edmonton trading Broberg to St. Louis for a package of draft picks and prospects.
The Swedish blue-liner got off to a great start this season, scoring two goals and accumulating nine points in his first 12 games. In addition to averaging 0.92 Hits/GP and 1.00 Blocks/GP, solid numbers from a defenseman, he also sported a SH% of 18.2% and SOG/GP of 0.92.
Thus, he was generating more-than-expected shot volume for a St. Louis defenseman, and he seemed to benefit from that shot increase in St. Louis. That is illustrated by his 2.3 PTS/60, significantly higher than expected from Broberg at the beginning of the season.
Unfortunately, Broberg went on Injured Reserve after a November 2nd lower-body injury against the Maple Leafs. That limited him to only 12 games, and the Blues struggled to find offensive production from their blue-liners, especially Colton Parayko (12 points in 24 GP) and Justin Faulk (6 points in 24 GP). Thankfully, the Blues activated Broberg off the IR on Saturday, meaning he will be available for Sunday’s game against Philadelphia.
It will be interesting to see how Montgomery utilizes Broberg’s return and manages who the former Oiler will be paired with.
The Swede was typically partnered with Faulk, and the pair produced a -1 plus/minus, an SF% of 39.5%, and a CF% of 42.9%. That’s not eye-popping at the surface level, but it was better than the primary Parayko-Ryan Suter line that produced a -7 plus/minus, 39.8% SF%, and 37.4% CF%.
On the other hand, the Faulk-Parayko line has played well together, though the data is limited (just 22:01 TOI). Still, they produced a 62.% SF% and 60% CF%, so those two are at least adept at generating shots, which is much-needed for a Blues team with the 5th-lowest SF/G in the league.
Will Montgomery pair Broberg with someone else, perhaps Suter or Scott Perunovich (the latter has been paired with Faulk)? Or will Broberg and Faulk be reunited, and will Parayko stay with Suter for now?
Sunday's game against the Flyers will give fantasy managers a good idea of Broberg’s TOI outlook under Montgomery and what his fantasy production could look like for the remainder of the season.
Joel Hofer, G, 5% Rostered
Jordan Binnington is the primary goalie in St. Louis, and rightfully so, with his pedigree. After all, in his last win against the Devils on November 27th, Binnington got the shutout and became the Blues’ all-time wins leader with his 152nd career win with St. Louis.
However, I’m curious to see if Montgomery will mix in Hofer more than his predecessors, Bannister and Craig Berube (who rode Binnington to a Stanley Cup in 2019).
In Boston, Montgomery employed a more balanced goalie split.
Last year, Jack Swayman made 44 appearances, while Linus Ullmark made 40. It was a wise move, as Swayman had a GAA of 2.53 and SV% of 0.916, while Ullmark had a GAA of 2.57 and SV% of 0.915. Together, they produced a GSAA of 30.1, one of the league’s best.
Even though Ullmark left for Ottawa, the Bruins still utilized Joonas Korpisalo heavily, though not nearly as much as Ullmark in 2023-2024.
Korpisalo has performed better than Swayman so far this year, as the 30-year-old Finnish goalie has a 2.45 GAA, .907 SV%, 62.5% QS%, and 1.4 GSAA. Conversely, Swayman has a 3.16 GAA, 0.888 SV%, 50% QS%, and -5.7 GSAA. Swayman’s struggles were a big reason Montgomery was let go in Boston.
This year, the Bruins have roughly a 2:1 ratio between Swayman and Korpisalo starts. Last year, that ratio was 1.1:1. The Blues this year have a 2.6:1 ratio between Binnington and Hofer, much higher than anything Montgomery has employed over the past two years in Boston.
Hofer is not a bad backup goalie option and could deserve more time between the pipes under St. Louis’ new head coach.
Hofer has a higher GAA (3.23) than Binnington (2.86), but his SV% is slightly better (0.899 to Binnington’s 0.898) and his GSAA is too (-0.51 to Binnington’s -1.49). Even though Binnington deserves more starts than his 24-year-old Canadian countryman, I think it would benefit Binnington and the Blues as a whole for the Binnington-Hofer start ratio to dip to a ratio closer to 2:1, which is what Montgomery was employing in Boston before he was fired.
Giving Hofer more starts will help him improve his skills and gain more experience in Monty’s more goalie-friendly system. Furthermore, Binnington will remain fresher, which could help him with his fantasy numbers this year, which have been pedestrian for his standards.
However, Hofer is the better fantasy target with Montgomery's arrival, especially since he is available in 95% of leagues. If Montgomery does lessen Binnington’s load, Hofer will benefit from more games played and, consequently, better fantasy production.
In deep leagues, fantasy managers should take a flier on Hofer and see how his playing time fares in the next two weeks. If his start totals spike upward, he could be an excellent third-goalie option for fantasy teams.
Photo Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports