Flying Again in Detroit?
Four Players to Watch in Fantasy After Detroit's Coaching Change
The Detroit Red Wings, one of the Original Six franchises, had gotten off to a rough start to the 2024-2025 season. Even though expectations were low in the preseason, they still had only collected 30 points, suitable for second-to-last in the Atlantic Division (just two points better than the Buffalo Sabres). Thus, it seemed like some change was looming for Detroit, especially if they wanted to turn around their fortunes in the postseason race.
On Thursday, the Detroit Red Wings announced they would be firing head coach Derek Lalonde and replacing him with former Sharks, Oilers, and Kings head coach Todd McLellan.
The Red Wings have been disappointed in various ways this season, thus explaining their low status in the Atlantic Division.
Their -23 goal differential is the worst mark in the division, and their -4.7 shot differential also ranks last in the Atlantic. The club has shown signs of life in the power play, as they rank tied for 10th in the league in power-play goals with 22 (along with the Capitals and Canucks). However, as JFresh Hockey’s team card pointed out, they’ve been lousy on both the offensive and defensive ends this season.
Even though the coaching change may help (it’s done wonders for the St. Louis Blues, but not so much for the Boston Bruins), McLellan has a lot of work ahead with this Red Wings team. This is especially true considering how tough the Atlantic Division is currently with the defending champion Panthers and the Maple Leafs, Bruins, and Lightning, who all have 40 or more points this season.
The Red Wings’ team outlook for the remainder of the season is still unclear. However, they have fantasy players who could benefit from the coaching change.
Despite having mixed results in his coaching tenures with San Jose, Edmonton, and Los Angeles, McLellan has been known for maximizing the skills and talents of his star players. That should give fantasy managers hope that Red Wings players who have gotten off to slow starts could be due to some positive fantasy regression under this new regime.
Let’s look at four players (three skaters and a goalie) who could benefit from McLellan taking over Detroit for the remainder of the 2024-2025 season.
Dylan Larkin, C, 90% rostered
The 28-year-old Red Wings captain has gotten off to a slow start to begin the season. In 34 games, Larkin has scored 12 goals and accumulated 26 points, which equates to 0.76 PTS/G. That latter is down from his 1.01 PTS/G mark last season, and his 63-point 82-game pace is nearly 20 points down from his 83-point 82-game pace a year ago.
Surprisingly, the shooting metrics aren’t all that different from what Larkin did in 2023-2024 with the Red Wings.
His 14.5 SH% is only 0.4 percentage points different from a year ago, and while his 9.4% 5-on-5 SH% is 1.5 points down from last season, it’s not a dramatic decline by any means. Conversely, he has increased slightly in PDO (from 1007 to 1010) and CF% (51.3% to 52.1%), showing he’s getting plenty of shooting and scoring opportunities this season. He’s just not cashing in with points as much as he did last year, as evidenced by his 0.35 G/GP and 0.41 A/GP, both down from 2023-2024.
I wonder if McLellan mixing up Larkin’s lines could have a positive impact for the remainder of the season.
This year, Larkin has been primarily grouped with Alex Debrincat and Lucas Raymond, as they have accumulated 184:25 TOI. The line has produced some good shooting numbers, as evidenced by their 50.8% SF% and 55.8 CF%. Unfortunately, the production has not produced positive points. They have a -5 plus/minus together this season.
Larkin, Debrincat, and Patrick Kane have been a more productive line recently, even though they have only accumulated 84:23 TOI together this season. They played primarily together in the Red Wings’ last game against St. Louis, which is a good sign that they may be more of a regular grouping from now on. For the season, that line has a +2 plus/minus, an SF% of 50.7%, and a CF% of 51.3%.
It will be interesting to see if McLellan will lean on that line and see if they can help the Red Wings break their scoring slump, as they have scored only four goals in their last three games. If McLellan can get that group going, then Larkin will not only be a productive fantasy player again but also live up to his high-rostered percentage.
Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, 8% Rostered
Tarasenko may be more of a familiar “name” than a relevant fantasy player nowadays.
He’s currently a third-line winger for the Red Wings, only averaging 14:38 TOI and 1:37 PP TOI. His 6.9 SH% is down from 14.8% a season ago with the Senators and Panthers, and his 30-point 82-game pace is 29 points down from his 82-game pace in 2023-2024.
Even though Tarasenko’s best years are behind him, he could benefit from the coaching change, especially with a coach like McLellan, who knew Tarasenko’s skill set when the Russian was lighting it up with the Blues.
The 33-year-old winger’s 5-on-5 SH% is 8.9%, 1.7% down from a season ago. However, his SOG/60 is 7.2, only a 0.6 difference from last year. He has also been much better in power play, even though he sees less time with Detroit (34.6% PP%) than with Ottawa and Florida last season (40.3% PP%). His PP IPP of 66.7% is 10.4% better than what he did in 2023-2024. Furthermore, it’s 14.5% better than his even-strength IPP this season (52.2%).
It wouldn’t be surprising to see McLellan shift Tarasenko to more PP1 duties or utilize the PP2 group more often to maximize the Russian wing’s impact. Granted, Raymond has done a fine job in the power play, as evidenced by his own 82.4% PP IPP this season. Furthermore, the Red Wings' power play has actually been the bright spot for this Red Wings team this year, so maybe McLellan won’t rock the boat too much.
That said, fantasy managers should expect some fantasy boost from Tarasenko, just based on McLellan’s history. Considering Tarasenko’s available in 92% of Yahoo leagues, he’s worth a dart throw for the time being as a streamer, even if he hasn’t scored a point in his last eight games.
Moritz Seider, D, 96% Rostered
With a rostered percentage of 96%, Seider is currently the most relevant Red Wings player in fantasy. Thus, fantasy managers who roster him are wondering if McLellan can help give him a boost for the remainder of the season.
In 34 games, Seider has accumulated four goals and 18 points. He’s averaging 0.53 PTS/G, which puts him in peculiar company among blue-liners.
According to Dobber, he’s tied with Calgary’s Mackenzie Weegar and Montreal’s Mike Matheson regarding PTS/G. He’s ahead of more well-known names like Vegas’ Alex Pietrangelo (0.52), Toronto’s Morgan Rielly (0.51), and Edmonton’s Darnell Nurse (0.48). However, he’s behind other defensemen like Florida’s Aaron Ekblad (0.56), New Jersey’s Dougie Hamilton (0.62), and Buffalo’s Owen Power (0.63).
Seider is pretty much doing what he did a year ago, statistically. His 43-point 82-game pace is one point better than his pace last year. His 6.1% SH% is 0.6 lower than a season ago. His 1.9 SOG/G is 0.3 points higher, and 40.9% IPP is also two percent better.
However, he also sees this improvement with much more ice time than in 2023-2024.
His 25:02 TOI is nearly three minutes more than his TOI a season ago (22:22), and his PP% of 59.7% is also higher than his 41.9% PP% in 2023-2024. Thus, while the slight improvement is encouraging, fantasy managers were expecting a much more significant spike in production this season with an increase in his role.
Seider is still significantly relevant in banger leagues.
He’s averaging 2.50 Hits/G and 2.26 Blocks/G, which is a huge plus considering his first-line duties in even-strength and power-play situations. He also has a secondary assist% of 57.1% and CF% of 48.6%, which shows he’s in the mix for accumulating points on a fantasy end, even if his shots aren’t finding the net.
Still, can McLellan get a little more scoring-wise from Seider, even if he’s more of a physically centered defenseman?
The talent is certainly there to be one of the better blue-liners in fantasy. In addition, his 18th ranking in Dobber’s Top 120 Defensemen in the preseason demonstrates serious long-term potential for the German defenseman.
Seider could be a nice trade target for those looking to improve their blue line, especially if McLellan can get the young Seider to mesh and buy into the new coach’s system sooner rather than later.
Cam Talbot, G, 45% Rostered
After coming from Los Angeles, Talbot had a solid start to the season with the Red Wings. However, he got injured and has struggled since returning, with zero wins and only one quality start in his last five games.
In his past three games, the 37-year-old goalie is not only 0-3 but has produced a 3.06 GAA, 0.897 SV%, -0.30 GSAA, and a 33.3% QS%. That isn’t much worse than Ville Husso over the last three weeks, as Husso produced a 1-2 record, a 2.76 GAA, 0.899 SV%, -0.10 GSAA, and 75% QS%. The Finnish goalie was recently demoted to Grand Rapids of the AHL a week ago.
Talbot provides the veteran presence between the pipes that the Red Wings need, especially since 32-year-old backup Alex Lyon has recently experienced his fair share of struggles. Lyon has produced a 4.53 GAA, 0.791 SV%, and -4.70 GSAA in his past two starts. Thus, fantasy managers who roster Talbot can feel good that he will continue to be the primary goalie in Detroit for the considerable future, even with the coaching change.
A benefit of the coaching change for managers who roster Talbot is that McLellan has direct experience working with Talbot. McLellan coached Talbot in Los Angeles and Edmonton, with their standout season together in 2016-2017, when the Oilers finished second in the Pacific Division with 103 points. Talbot won 47 games with a GAA of 2.39, SV% of 0.919, GSAA of 12.20, and QS% of 58.9%. Hence, McLellan likely has a tremendous amount of trust in Talbot from that time with the Oilers and Kings.
Now, is Talbot going to produce those kinds of numbers again suddenly? Likely not, especially since that was eight seasons ago.
That said, Talbot had a great season before the injury, and his overall numbers remain solid.
In 18 games, he’s sporting a 2.79 GAA, 0.912 SV%, 6.00 GSAA, and 61% QS%. He may be due for some regression, but he’s still an above-average goalie who can significantly and positively impact a fantasy team this season.
McLellan will continue to give Talbot his respect and plenty of opportunities for the remainder of the season to be in the net for the Red Wings, even if the expectations for this club are much different than those of the 2016-2017 Edmonton team.
Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters