Forward Thinking in Boston?
Can a Coaching Change Help the Bruins' Front-Line Forwards in Fantasy?
After a disappointing 8-9-3 start in 20 games, the Boston Bruins made a coaching change today, firing Jim Montgomery.
The former Dallas Stars head coach had a successful start with the Bruins, taking over in the 2022-2023 season. In his debut campaign, he went 65-12-5, good for 135 points. However, the regular-season glory was shortlived, as the Bruins lost to the Florida Panthers in seven games in the first round of the playoffs.
His sophomore season was a little better and worse in 2023-2024. The Bruins went 47-20-15 with 109 points, good for second in the Atlantic. However, they beat the rival Maple Leafs in the first round (though they nearly blew a 3-0 lead). Unfortunately, the Panthers proved to be a foil again, as they lost 4-2 to Florida in the second round of the playoffs.
Unfortunately, Montgomery couldn’t get another shot at Florida in the postseason. He was let go as the Bruins ’ head coach after playing nearly a quarter of the season, and Joe Sacco has been named the interim head coach for now.
From a fantasy perspective, many Bruins expected to be key fantasy point collectors have been major disappointments. That is particularly true with the Bruins’ first-line forwards, specifically David Pastrnak, Elias Lindholm, and Brad Marchand.
The group has only produced one goal and a plus/minus of zero in 52:24 TOI together. That’s not precisely what fantasy managers want to see, especially considering the ADP profiles of that trio.
Let’s break down each Bruins forward, what has gone wrong, and what fantasy managers who roster them can expect going forward in the Sacco era (for now).
David Pastrnak, RW (100% rostered)
Pastrnak was considered a consensus top-10 player in fantasy during the draft season. Dobber rated him as the sixth-best player in their Top 300 rankings and No. 8 in their Top 100 Roto League rankings. Even though his goal total went from 61 in 2022-2023 to 47 in 2023-2024, he still produced 110 points, only three fewer than the 22-23 season.
Unfortunately for managers who spent a first-round pick on Pastrnak, he’s underachieving in most fantasy categories.
He has only 17 points this year, good for 0.85 Pts/G. That’s down from his 1.34 mark in 23-24 and 1.38 mark in 22-23. His SH% this year is also 9.8%, 2.5% down from last year, and his 0.20 PPP/GP is down from his 0.43 mark a season ago. The latter mark is frustrating, especially since his PP TOI (4:51) is up from last year (3:46).
Pastrnak hasn’t vibed with this Bruins first-line group, or any line in particular, so far this season, and the advanced shot numbers seem to back that up.
After posting a 5-on-5 SH% of 11.3% last year, he is down to 7.7%. Furthermore, his SOG/60 is down 12.4 (1.6 less than a year ago), his PDO is 1004 (down from 1036 last year), and his CF% of 49.6% is down 1.7%. He also is only producing a secondary assist% of 22.2%. That is down from 38.1% last year and 40.4% in 22-23.
Even if the shots aren’t going, Pastrnak hasn’t been able to collect points consistently in other ways, hurting his fantasy value.
That said, I remain more optimistic about Pastrnak than the other options on the Bruins’ first line.
Pastrnak’s OZ Start% is 62%, up from 58.6% a year ago. That shows he is getting more than enough opportunities on the ice to create offense and points. Furthermore, his xG% in 5-on-5 situations is 51.7%, actually 0.1% higher than his mark in that category a year ago.
Interestingly enough, penalties have been an issue for Pastrnak in these first 20 games of the season. His PIM/GP is 0.90, the highest of his career, and nearly 0.33 higher than a year ago. That is a sign of frustration from Pastrnak, and it has seemed to get him out of his playmaking rhythm when he is on the ice, much to the chagrin of fantasy managers who roster him on their teams.
The Bruins’ coaching change could rejuvenate him and help him become more disciplined and in control. Sacco (or whoever replaces Montgomery long term) could also pair Pastrnak with the right lines to maximize his goal- and point-scoring ability. He’s also spent some time on lines with Pavel Zacha (49.3 SF%; 45.7 CF%) and Morgan Geekie (58.3 SF%; 56.5 CF%) this year, to mixed results.
Will that right line for Pastrnak be with Marchand and Lindholm? Who knows, but I would be bullish on Pastrnak and his fantasy production in the season's second quarter.
Elias Lindholm, C (51% rostered)
The Bruins jumped on Lindholm in free agency, signing the former Flame and Canuck to a seven-year, $54.25 million contract.
In the preseason, Lindholm was rated No. 78 in Dobber’s Top 300 fantasy players and 78th in his Top 100 Roto league rankings. Thus, it seemed like Lindholm would be an excellent fit for fantasy managers looking for security at the center positions later in drafts.
Things haven’t clicked for Lindholm in Boston through 20 games. That isn't very reassuring, especially since Bruins (and fantasy hockey) fans had high hopes that he could step in and replace the recently retired Patrice Bergeron.
The Swedish center has only two goals and nine points, and his SOG/G of 1.5 is down from 2.3 a year ago. Furthermore, he averages 0.45 PTS/G, has a -2 plus/minus, and only has an SH% of 6.9%. His PTS/G and SH% are down from a year ago, and his plus/minus is one pace to match the -14 mark he had last year, which hurts managers who play in roto leagues that utilize the plus/minus category.
If the current shot trends keep, Lindholm won’t accumulate many goals on this Bruins's first line (if he continues with Pastrnak and Marchand). However, he does many other things well, which makes his 51% rostered percentage in Yahoo a bit peculiar.
His secondary assist% is 71.4%, up from his 51.7% last year. He is also a block machine with the Bruins. He has 25 this year and averages 1.25 BLK/G. For fantasy managers who play in banger league formats, Lindholm could be an excellent source of assists and blocks, with the former perhaps surging in the coming weeks with a new voice leading the locker room.
With Lindholm available in 49% of Yahoo leagues, he may be worth considering if he is available.
Brad Marchand, LW (93% rostered)
The sun may finally be setting on Marchand and his illustrious career in Boston, especially at nearly 37 years of age.
Even though he was still ranked 97th in Dobber’s Top 300 rankings and 84th in their Top 100 Roto League rankings, Marchand came into this season beat up from an entire 82-game season last year.
He underwent three surgeries this offseason to fix multiple issues with his elbow and sports hernias that he played through in 2023-2024. He was still productive last year, scoring 67 points, producing a +2 plus/minus, and sporting an SH% of 14% in 19:06 TOI. However, all the surgeries this offseason probably showed that some regression was due for Marchand this year.
The regression has certainly hit Marchand hard, and I’m not sure that letting Monty go and bringing in a new coach will affect the Canadian-born Bruins captain as much.
Marchand has five goals and 13 points through 20 games, which isn’t bad at first glance. However, his PTS/G is down to 0.65, and his SH% is also down 8.6%.
He’s shown more accuracy with his shots this year, as his SOG/G of 2.9 is higher than his 2.5 mark a season ago. Conversely, his 5-on-5 shooting is down to 4%, and his PDO is down to 995.
Those metrics are two major red flags: shots aren’t coming as frequently for Marchand in 2024-2025.
To make matters worse, the secondary assist% is only 12.5%, down from 44.7% last year. That is concerning as it shows that Marchand isn’t getting those secondary assists that can boost a fantasy team’s scoring. Thus, he’s not producing fantasy-wise in other ways when he's not scoring goals. Furthermore, he only has 15 hits and nine blocks, which are pretty pedestrian numbers in banger leagues and further shows his limited value when he’s not finding the puck into nets.
He is rostered in 93% of leagues right now, which shows Marchand still carries significant fantasy name power. That status makes it challenging for fantasy managers to part ways with him despite the questionable metrics and recent cold streak (zero points in last three games). While I think fantasy managers who roster Pastrnak and Lindholm can remain optimistic about their fantasy outlook with the coaching change, I am slightly more cautious with Marchand due to his age and declining skills this year.
Then again, we are only about one-quarter of the way into the season.
Can Marchand still show that he has something left in the tank in the season's second quarter?
We could have an answer to that question based on how and where (i.e., what line) interim coach Sacco utilizes Marchand in the next week of games.
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