Goalie "Studs and Duds": Week 12
Which Goalies Had Good Fantasy Weeks? And Who Didn't?
We’re reaching the end of Week 12, though Sunday's NHL schedule is still decently full. Nine NHL games are scheduled today to close out the week. The high number of games is likely due to the Christmas/Holiday break, as no NHL games were played from December 24th to the 26th.
As someone who will find any excuse not to watch NFL football, I’ll gladly welcome the packed Sunday NHL slate.
Even though Week 12 of the Fantasy Hockey season isn’t done, I wanted to reflect on the past two weeks and examine some goalies who stood out in good and bad ways. In this edition of “Studs and Duds,” I highlighted three goalies who have been exceptionally proficient in the last 14 days and three who have been underwhelming, to put it nicely.
Let’s break down the six goalies, their performances, and what fantasy hockey managers’ outlooks for them should be going forward, especially in Week 13.
Stud: Connor Hellebuyck, WPG, 100% rostered
Hellebuyck is having himself another Vezina-worthy campaign this season. He has collected 23 wins, has a GAA of 2.06, a 0.928 SV%, 79% QS%, and a GSAA of 23.20. Deemed as the top goalie in the preseason by Dobber, the American-born goalie has lived up to the hype and then some for a surging Winnipeg squad.
Thus, it’s not surprising that Hellebuyck has been a brick wall in the goal for the Jets over the past two weeks.
Hellebuyck has five wins and five quality starts in his last five games played. Over that five-game span, he has a shutout, a 1.80 GAA, 0.937 SV%, and a GSAA of 5.20. The only “slight” blemish for Hellebuyck in his past five games is that his SH SV% is only 0.857. That’s not bad; it's just not as “elite” as any of his other metrics in the past two weeks. However, he has made up for it with a 0.949 EV SV% in his previous five games.
For fantasy hockey managers who roster Hellebuyck, he’s pretty much like a “Ron Popeil Showtime Rotisserie Grill” in the sense that when he plays, you set him in your lineup and forget it (because he’s going to provide solid value, regardless of fantasy scoring format).
(See the video below if you don’t get the reference.)
Dud: Alexandar Georgiev, SJS, 55% Rostered
After winning his debut start with the Sharks against St. Louis on December 12th, Georgiev has regressed to what he was earlier this season with Colorado, which is a mediocre goalie in fantasy.
In the last two weeks, Georgiev has lost all three of his starts and hasn’t produced a quality start.
In those three games, his GAA is 4.49, his SV% is 0.869, and his GSAA is -3.10. The 28-year-old goalie has actually been decent in even-strength situations (0.914 EV SV%), but he’s putting up awful numbers in short-handed (0.700 SH SV%) and even power-play situations (0.667 PP SV%). Granted, the San Jose blue line isn’t doing him any favors, but Georgiev isn’t doing much to help his trade value.
Regular backup goalie Vitek Vanecek was added to the IR after a stray puck hit him in the head before the Christmas break. As a result, goalie prospect Yaroslav Askarov was called up, and he had a solid performance against the Flames in his first start after the holiday layoff.
In San Jose’s 3-1 loss to Calgary, Askarov only allowed two goals on 32 shots and produced a 2.07 GSAA, 0.938 SV%, and GSAA of 1.20. The performance helped him earn Two-Star honors in the loss.
If Georgiev doesn’t turn things around soon, Askarov could earn more starts between the pipes for the Sharks, especially if Vanecek's injury lingers longer than expected. That will deflate Georgiev’s trade value and his fantasy value.
Stud: Andrei Vasilevskiy, TBL, 99% Rostered
The Lightning are fourth in a tough Atlantic Division despite putting up 42 points so far this season. If they want to continue to progress on Boston, Toronto, and Florida in the division, they will need Vasilevskiy to continue his hot play in goal.
The Russian goalie has six wins and six quality starts in his last eight games for Tampa Bay. He has played four games over the past 14 days and accumulated three quality starts (a 75% QS%). Furthermore, he has collected three wins over those four contests and posted a GAA of 2.27, SV% of 0.932, and GSAA of 4.20.
That’s not quite Hellebuyck level, but it’s still pretty solid, especially for a goalie so highly rostered in fantasy.
Vasilevskiy is certainly making his case for Vezina's consideration.
He has 16 wins this year as the Lightning’s primary goalie (27 GP), and he is posting a GAA of 2.35, an SV% of 0.914, a QS% of 59%, and a GSAA of 10.00. Hellebuyck has the edge because the Jets lead the NHL with 53 points. However, if Tampa Bay can go on a run in the coming months, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Russian emerge as a budding favorite, significantly since the Lightning’s success will likely correlate with Vasilevskiy’s performance in goal.
Dud: Ilya Sorokin, NYI, 95% Rostered
The Islanders don’t have a lot of goalie options beyond Sorokin at the moment.
Semyon Varlamov is on long-term IR after sustaining a lower-body injury on November 30th against the Capitals. New York recalled Marcus Hogberg to be the Islanders’ backup to Sorokin. Still, head coach Patrick Roy has been leaning on the 29-year-old goalie heavily in Varlamov’s absence (though, to be fair, he leaned on Sorokin heavily before Varlamov’s injury as well).
It seems like fatigue is getting to the Islanders’ primary goalie, who has played in 26 games this season.
Over the past two weeks, Sorokin is 2-3 in five starts. However, he hasn’t produced a quality start over those five games, and his Really Bad Start percentage (RBS%) is 60%. In addition, he has sported a 4.33 GAA, 0.837 SV%, and -7.70 GSAA in his past five outings. It’s a minor miracle that Sorokin got two wins after such a bad stretch.
For a Tier 1 goalie who was ranked No. 3 in the preseason at his position by Dobber, Sorokin is doing all he can for fantasy managers who roster him, especially considering how poor the Islanders are. Their 35 points are second-to-last in the Metropolitan division, two points ahead of the Rangers, who have totally tanked in the past month.
Sorokin has 11 wins this year and is posting a GAA of 2.96, an SV% of 0.897, a QS% of 58%, and a GSAA of -1.90. That’s still good enough for a goalie who can play regularly in fantasy, and his high usage by Roy makes him even more valuable in roto or category H2H formats.
However, this rough recent stretch could snowball for Sorkin and fantasy managers who roster him, especially if the Islanders start shedding their roster for “future assets” before the March Trade Deadline.
Stud: Calvin Pickard, EDM, 17% Rostered
Stuart Skinner gets a majority of the starts in Edmonton between the pipes. It makes sense, considering that Skinner is 13-8-3 this year with 14 quality starts, a GAA of 2.89, and an SV% of 0.894. However, even though Pickard is the backup, he shouldn’t be slept on, especially in deep leagues where quality goalies are hard to stream.
In 12 games this year, Pickard has eight wins, a 2.37 GAA, a .902 SV%, a GSAA of 0.50, and a QS% of 67%. The 32-year-old Oilers backup has minimized bad starts (17% RBS%) in his limited number of outings, making him worthy of a streaming pickup for fantasy managers.
The Canadian goalie has only two starts for Edmonton in the last three weeks. However, he won both games and put up a GAA of 1.52, an SV% of 0.942, and a GSAA of 2.20. Pickard has been firm in even-strength situations, as his EV SV% was 0.941 in those two starts. His SH SV% was a little less impressive at 0.750. However, if the Oilers can avoid the sin bin, Pickard should be acceptable and productive as a fantasy goalie.
Pickard is scheduled to start against Anaheim on Sunday afternoon at the Honda Center. Although this is the Oilers' second game in a row, the Ducks are a much easier matchup than the Kings, whom Edmonton played in Los Angeles on Saturday night. Pickard should be in line for another solid performance and, hopefully, another win.
Dud: Jonathan Quick, NYR, 13% Rostered
The Rangers are a tire fire right now, a phrase I’ve used about the Blueshirts more than once on this blog. I’ve purged a lot of Rangers from my fantasy rosters in the past few weeks, including Mika Zibanejad (trade), Chris Kreider (trade), and Will Cuylle (drop). I would suggest other fantasy hockey managers do the same (though I’m still holding onto Vincent Trocheck, who produced a 13-point performance in KKUPFL last night).
Quick can be added to that list of Rangers-themed “drops,” especially after his recent performance.
The 38-year-old veteran has zero wins and quality starts in his last five games. Over that five-game period, he has a 3.74 GAA, 0.845 SV%, and -5.30 GSAA. That’s pretty unacceptable in fantasy, especially for a backup who cedes a lot to primary Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin.
Shesterkin has struggled with New York this season for his standards. He’s 11-14-1 in 26 GP, has 17 quality starts, and has a GAA of 3.06 and SV% of .908.
That’s not bad by any means (except for the record). Still, it’s a major disappointment for a goalie categorized in the same tier as Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy in the preseason.
One would think Quick would take advantage of Shesterkin’s up-and-down season. Unfortunately, Quick has only made 12 starts this year and has struggled with the limited opportunities he’s received over the past month. Thus, it’s hard to roster Quick right now, even as a deep-league third goalie option.
After some early success with the Rangers, Quick has shown his age and may be on his way out soon. This is especially true if the Rangers embrace rebuilding and look to younger options with more upside in the AHL, such as 22-year-old Dylan Garland.
Photo Credit: Sergei Belski-Imagn Images