Goalie "Studs and Duds": Week 15
Which Goalies Had Good Fantasy Weeks? And Who Didn't?
I’ve missed a couple of weeks of posts here on Goalie Streamer. That can be partially attributed to the heating up of baseball season and the spike in my writing at Royals Reporter. Thus, I probably won’t write here much as we advance in the season, maybe a post or two a week. I have enjoyed writing about Fantasy Hockey, but once baseball season begins, my focus tends to return to that sport.
I’m also considering shifting toward another hockey project on Substack, though it may not happen until next season. If that happens, this Substack will probably be fazed out by next season. However, at the very least, there will be posts here until the conclusion of the Fantasy 2024-2025 campaign.
Now that I have said that, let’s review some of the goaltending “studs” and “duds” from Week 15 of Fantasy Hockey.
Stud: Igor Shesterkin, NYR (99% Rostered)
Since returning from injury, Shesterkin has looked like his old Vezina-winning self. He has four wins and four quality starts in his last five games. During the previous three weeks, he has a 4-1-1 record, a 2.11 GAA, 0.920 SV%, a 3.04 GSAA, and a 66.7% QS%. As a result, the Rangers have climbed up a bit in the Metropolitan standings, as they sit in fifth place, just three points behind the fourth-place Columbus Blue Jackets.
Backup goalie Jonathan Quick has been on a cold streak for a while now. In his last nine games, he has a 1-4-2 record with a 3.96 GAA, 0.863 SV%, and 11% QS%. Thus, if the Rangers continue to get back into the Wild Card race, it’s likely that Shesterkin will continue to garner more starts in the net down the stretch, making him even more of an asset in the goal for fantasy managers.
Dud: Filip Gustavsson, MIN (91% Rostered)
The Wild have been one of the better stories in hockey, and Gustavsson has been no exception to that rule. The 26-year-old Swedish goaltender has had a stellar year, with 18 wins, a 2.58 GAA, 0.914 SV, 71% QS%, and a 12.19 GSAA. He has maximized the strong performances and limited the poor ones in the net for Minnesota, as evidenced by his 16% RBS%. As a result, the Wild have hovered near the top of the Central division for most of the year.
However, the Wild has plummeted a bit over the past few weeks. They are now third in the division with 58 points (one point behind Dallas and seven behind Winnipeg). The Wild attack has gone cold, with only six goals in their last three games, and the blue line hasn’t been great either (14 goals allowed in three games). Gustavsson is also going through his funk, with zero wins and quality starts in his last four games. That has undoubtedly affected the Wild’s overall play over the past few weeks.
In his last seven games, Gustavsson is 2-4-1 with a 3.79 GAA, 0.891 SV%, 42.9% QS%, and -2.12 GSAA. His RBS% in the past three weeks is 28.6%, 12.6% higher than his season average. A big issue has been health on the blue line, as Brock Faber has missed considerable time. If the Wild gets healthier, it could help Gustavsson get back on track fantasy-wise.
Stud: Jakub Dobes, MTL (34% Rostered)
The rookie goalie has been a key part of Montreal’s resurgence in the past month. Since getting called up, he has collected five wins and produced a 1.55 GAA, 0.940 SV%, a 5.27 GSAA, and a 60% QS%. That has given the Canadiens some insurance in the net when starter Sam Montembault needs a night off.
Dobes has a 50% QS% and a 1.90 GSAA in his last four starts. That is good, but nothing earth-shattering. He has done exceptionally well in even-strength situations with a 0.920 EV SV%. However, he only has a 0.792% SV% in the penalty kill. That SH SV% could be worth watching from Dobes. If he continues to struggle in those situations (or if his EV SV% regresses), the Canadiens may promote Cayden Primeau from the AHL, even though Primeau’s numbers (4.70 GAA and 0.836 SV% in 11 GP) haven’t been great at the NHL level.
Dud: Charlie Lindgren, WSH (31% Rostered)
Lindgren has been on the IL and recently returned to the Capitals roster on Saturday, even though he didn’t start against the Penguins. However, Lindgren has demonstrated plenty of concerns, making him a “dud” for fantasy managers.
Even before the injury, the 31-year-old goalie showed signs of regression after a hot start to the season. He had zero wins, and only one quality start in his last five games. He also had a 2.85 GAA, 0.896 SV%, and a -0.50 GSAA in the previous three weeks. Surprisingly, he performed well in even-strength (0.915 EV SV%) and the penalty kill (0.923 SH SV%). However, he struggled in the power-play, giving up many short-handed goals to opponents (0.667 PP SV%). That feels fluky, but it stood out as a negative, nonetheless.
Another item of concern with Lindgren is his future in Washington. The Capitals obviously like the two-headed combo with him and Logan Thompson, but they must extend one after this season. Washington’s front office would like to do that sooner rather than later, but they worry that it could upset the locker room, according to a recent report from Capitals’ blog “Russian Machine Never Breaks” (RMNB). If Lindgren’s performance continues to regress, the rumors of Thompson being the extension candidate could get louder, only affecting Lindgren’s outlook in D.C.
Stud: Leevi Merilainen, OTT (30% Rostered)
Things looked bleak for the Senators after goalie Linus Ullmark went on IR due to a back injury on January 5th. However, rookie Merilainen has not just stepped up in Ullmark’s place but could have a place in the Ottawa goalie rotation for the remainder of the season.
The Finnish goaltender has six wins in nine games, with a 2.20 GAA, 0.917 SV%, 56% QS%, and a 3.67 GSAA. The Ottawa rookie has been even better in his last seven. He has a 71.4 QS%, a 1.85 GAA, 0.932 SV%, and 5.85 GSAA over the past three weeks. Merilainen has been incredibly impressive in the penalty kill in that sample, with a 0.932 SH SV%.
Ullmark seems to be back skating with the team, so it feels likely that Ottawa will send Merilainen back to the AHL. That said, if Ottawa fades a bit from the playoff race in the next month, they could trade either Ullmark or Anton Forsberg by the March Trade Deadline to give Merilainen more opportunities down the stretch.
Dud: Tristan Jarry, PIT (9% Rostered)
It seems like the Jarry era in Pittsburgh is starting to end. On Wednesday, the Penguins placed the 29-year-old goalie on waivers, but he went unclaimed. Thus, he was assigned back to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in the AHL, with rookie Joel Blomqvist taking his place.
It’s been a rough year for Jarry as he has only eight wins in 22 games with a 3.26 GAA, 0.886 SV%, 36% QS%, and -8.90 GSAA. He also had zero wins and quality starts in his last four starts and a 40% RBS% in his previous five games. Thus, it makes sense why the Penguins have opted for Blomqvist and veteran Alex Nedeljkovic over Jarry in the net.
The Penguins will likely look to upgrade at goalie in the next month before the March Trade Deadline. If they look outside the organization for goalie help, fantasy managers should expect Jarry to be part of that package. A new home could give Jarry a fantasy boost, though it may be a while until that happens. He can rest on waivers comfortably for now, regardless of league format.
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