Hot Skaters to Watch: Week 19
Four Skaters Who Could Have An Impact After The Four Nations Break
It’s been a long layoff since my last post here, and for all those who have recently subscribed, I apologize for the lack of content here recently.
This has been a bit of a new project, as I typically write about Kansas City Royals and fantasy baseball on Pitcher List. Looking to dive into a different area this baseball offseason, I began this publication hoping to get more into fantasy hockey, which I have played for about four years.
So far, I have written more here than in previous editions of this publication. However, with baseball season approaching and some other personal things going on, writing has fallen off, which explains the nearly month-long gap between posts.
I hope to get at least 1 to 2 posts a week until the end of the fantasy hockey season. After that, I may only write sparingly until draft season (typically August/September). I want to add a WHL aspect to this publication, especially since I probably watch as much WHL hockey as I do NHL. That said, I don’t want to move on from fantasy hockey-related content in the future. Regardless, it’s possible that this publication could look a bit different next season.
Anyway, I’ve gotten inspired to write a post again due to the Four Nations tournament, which has been as good as advertised. On the one hand, I enjoyed the first four games of the competition, especially last night’s Canda-USA game, in which three fights broke out in less than 30 seconds of action.
On the other hand, this has produced a particularly long layoff of games. As a result, Week 19 will last until March 2nd in Yahoo leagues, one of the most prolonged periods of the fantasy hockey season. The NHL Trade Deadline is March 7th, so Week 19 could be a fascinating period of fantasy hockey competition, especially since some teams may look to swing for a trade after players return from the Four Nations break.
Here’s a look at how schedules will fare in Week 19, based on TJ Stats’ Fantasy Hockey Schedule app (available through his Patreon).
In this post, I will examine four skaters on hot streaks worth paying attention to in Week 19, especially with the looming trade deadline and the league coming off an exciting Four Nations competition.
Sam Bennett, C, FLA (52% rostered)
Bennett is currently playing for Team Canada in the Four Nations. The team is reeling after a 3-1 loss to Team USA in Montreal on Saturday night, but a win against Finland in their final round-robin game could clinch a spot in the championship. How Bennett performs on the ice could be key to Canada’s chance of not just making the championship but winning a rematch against the USA.
Regarding fantasy hockey, Bennett has been on fire recently, with four points in his last three games before the break. The 28-year-old center has collected four goals and six points in his previous eight games, with an average of 0.75 PTS/G. He also averaged 4.8 SOG/G and had a shooting rate of 10.5% during that period.
Bennett is coming off an uneven fantasy campaign in 2023-2024.
In 69 games last season, he scored 20 goals and 41 points while averaging 0.59 PTS/G. His 82-game point pace was 49, and in addition to producing a +17 plus/minus, he also sported an SH% of 11.7%. Add that with 171 hits and 12 PPP, there was some thought in draft season that Bennett could be extremely valuable, especially if he could play more games in 2024-2025.
This season, he has shown some slight improvement, with this latest stretch possibly signifying a strong finish from him and the Panthers. He has scored 18 goals and collected 35 points in 55 games. His PTS/G is up to 0.64, and his 82-game point pace is 52, three points higher than a year ago. Conversely, he has seen some regression in SH% at 10.2%, PPP/GP at 0.11 (down from 0.17), and Hits/GP at 2.16 (down from 2.48).
Still, his numbers are worth having on a fantasy roster, especially at the center position (he is still available in 48% of Yahoo leagues). Furthermore, he is on a good primary line with Carter Verhaege and Matthew Tkachuk (though who knows about Tkachuk’s health after he went down in the third period of last night’s game). The line has a -1 plus/minus, but they sport an SF% of 54.3% and CF% of 55.2%. They’re generating the shots necessary together, which will only benefit Bennett’s fantasy outlook in Week 19 and beyond.
If he’s available, he’s worth picking up ASAP.
Jason Zucker, LW, BUF (22% rostered)
It’s been a rough year for the Sabres, as they sit in last place in the Atlantic Division with 49 points (six points behind the Montreal Canadiens, who are second-to-last). As a result, it’s been less about winning for Buffalo recently and more about finding out who could be long-term pieces on the ice for this roster.
Zucker has undoubtedly made his case recently, and he can be one of those pieces despite his older age (33 years old).
It’s been a breakout season for Zucker, who played last season in Arizona and Nashville.
After producing 0.46 PTS/G and a 38-point 82-game pace in 69 games between the Coyotes (RIP) and Predators a year ago, he has boosted his PTS/G to 0.79 and his 82-game point pace to 65, a career-high if the season ended today. In 52 games, his plus/minus is +2 (up from -9 last year), and his 16:11 TOI is significantly higher than his 13:11 TOI in the previous season.
According to Left Wing Lock's most recent line data, Zucker has primarily been on the Sabres’ second line with Alex Tuch and Ryan McLeod. However, he also has seen some time with Tuch and Dylan Cozens. The Tuch-Cozens line may be more productive for Zucker, as they sport a CF% of 53.8%. That is much better than the Tuch-McLeod line, which has a 43.9% CF%. It will be interesting to see how Zucker’s line changes when the Sabres return from the break.
The left-winger has been on a hot streak shooting-wise that could be hard to sustain in the second half. His SH% for the season is 19.1% and 16.7% in his last six games. He also has been averaging 1.00 PTS/G in the previous three weeks and produced a 75% IPP, 12.9% 5-on-5 SH%, and CF% of 48.9%.
The CF% and SH% demonstrate regression coming for Zucker. That said, he should get plenty of scoring opportunities as long he stays on a line with Zuch and keeps getting time on the second power-play unit.
Considering he’s available in 78% of leagues, he may be worth a dart throw, especially since he has three home games this week against the Rangers, Ducks, and Canadiens, all of which are winnable.
Mike Zibanejad, RW, NYR (79% rostered)
Zibanejad plays for Team Sweden and has a key role in the squad in the Four Nations. However, the team's championship outlook looks dim after their 4-3 loss to Finland on Saturday. Even though he is getting more attention due to the Four Nations, he has also turned things around recently after a frigid start to the season.
The arrival of JT Miller has helped Zibanejad, as the pair makes up the Rangers’ first line along with Artemi Panarin. In 46:09 TOI, the trio has a +1 plus/minus together, producing an SF% of 58.5%. Conversely, their CF% of 49.4% is significantly lower, which could mean that some point regression could be coming for the three after the break.
Zibanejad has seen some time on the Rangers’ third line with Chris Kreider and Arthur Kaliyev. They played together against the Blue Jackets in their final game before the break and produced a 52% CF%. Even though they had a -1 plus/minus on the ice, the line can create shots and scoring opportunities, so this trio may be worth watching when the Rangers get back to play.
Regardless of line, it’s hard to ignore what Zibanejad has been doing individually over the last three weeks.
He has eight points in his previous seven games, suitable for a 1.14 PTS/G mark. In addition to sporting a 12% SH% in that stretch, he is averaging 2.9 SOG/G, an 88.9% IPP, and collected five PPP. That is a big reason why his rostered percentage has jumped back to nearly 80% (it seemed to hover close to 70% not too long ago).
Some of Zibanejad’s other stats during this stretch may be cause for concern.
His PDO is 969, 5-on-5 SH% is 6.9%, ZS% is 47.5%, and CF% is 47.4%. Those are all pretty pedestrian numbers and a sign that Zibanejad is simply on a hot streak and due to regress to his season-long metrics, which have been pretty paltry for his standards and expectations. His PTS/G of 0.67 is 22 points lower than a year ago, and his 55-point 82-game pace is 18 points lower. Add that with a -24 plus/minus, and it makes sense why Zibanejad has been categorized as one of the most disappointing fantasy forwards this year.
Furthermore, with Zibanejad still the focus of Rangers trade talks, the Swedish forward could move to a place that would further deflate his fantasy value. February 26th is the trade deadline for most Yahoo formats, so exploring trading away Zibanejad in a package may be a worthy strategy for anyone currently rostering the Swede and looking to get some value in return.
I am not optimistic that Zibanejad will maintain this pace over the next three weeks of the fantasy hockey season.
Morgan Rielly, D, TOR (75% rostered)
Rielly has been a frequent source of frustration for fantasy hockey managers this season. He gained a lot of interest in the draft season because he was the Leafs’ primary power-play quarterback and a first-line blue-liner. Unfortunately, the numbers haven’t been good this year, which has led to some changes in Rielly’s role in Toronto.
After producing a 66-point 82-game pace and averaging 0.66 PTS/G last season, his 82-game pace has regressed to 39 points, and his PTS/G has also declined to 0.47 PTS/G this season. His plus/minus has also declined -15 points (down from +7 last year), and his SOG/GP has also regressed from 2.40 last year to 1.69 this season. To make matters worse, Rielly isn’t providing much in banger categories, as he is only averaging 0.35 Hits/GP and 1.38 Blocks/GP, both significant declines from a year ago.
As a result, he’s been challenging to roster in most fantasy hockey formats, even with blue-liners being a fickle group. He also has seen his time on the ice dwindle, as his TOI is 21:30 (down from 23:44 last year). Additionally, his PP TOI is 2:10 (down from 2:39).
Regarding Toronto’s power play, they have recently opted for a first line consisting of all forwards and a second line where he is paired with fellow defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Ekman-Larsson has eaten much of Rielly’s time and role on the Maple Leafs’ blue line lately.
That said, Rielly has been on a hot streak in the last two weeks before the break, which has boosted his value and rostered percentage. He has four points in his previous games, suitable for a 0.67 Points/GP average. He also has three PPPs, a 60.2 ZS%, and a 50.6% CF% over that period. Hence, there may be some thought that Rielly could be due for a turnaround after the Four Nations break, and the Leafs have five games in Week 19, including two on off nights.
Rielly may be worth holding on for Week 19 and could be a drop afterward. Overall, he probably won’t sustain this production, and his 57.1% IPP over his most recent stretch gives me pause that Rielly is a rest-of-the-season option. However, he may be a candidate to trade away, especially with teams desperate for fantasy-scoring help on the blue line.
Photo Credit: Sam Navarro-USA Today Sports