Underdog Fantasy Champions Picks For December 7th
Four Players to Pick for Saturday's Slate
There were more unfortunate breaks in my selections last Saturday, as I went 2-for-4 in my Underdog Champions picks. I made no money on this one unlike the previous two sets of Champions picks.
Underdog Fantasy Champions Picks for November 30th
On Wednesday, it was another successful day of NHL selections, as I hit three of my four picks on Underdog Fantasy Champions Pick ‘Em. The only one I didn’t hit was Jason Robertson under 0.5 points, as he did collect 1 point in the Stars’ 6-2 loss to the Blackhawks in Chicago.
I hit on Jordan Kyrou (Over 7.05 points) and Erik Karlsson (Under 7.50 points). Unfortunately, Ryan O’Reilly had a breakout game for the Predators with ten fantasy points (I had him under 7.55). Also, Leon Draisaitl had an off night with only four fantasy points for the Oilers (I had him over 8.05 points). Those two performances sunk my picks last Saturday.
There are 11 NHL games on Saturday, so let’s look at which picks I made for Underdog Fantasy Champions today. With fantasy points unavailable as a category today, I decided to focus on shots as my standard category for this edition of picks.
John Taveras, TOR (Over 3.5 Shots)
Taveras has averaged 3.3 SOG/G in his last six games and will face a Penguins team that has allowed 32.1 Shots/G in the previous two weeks, the highest mark in the NHL. Over the last two weeks, the Leafs’ center is sporting a 10.2 SOG/60 and 11.1% 5-on-5 SH%. Thus, he’s an excellent source for shot volume, even if he hasn’t cashed in on those shot opportunities recently (14.8% SH% and 50% IPP in his last six).
The 3.5-shot standard for today’s game is high for Taveras, which may scare some from making this pick. However, I think he can get over that mark against a Pittsburgh blue line that is talented offensively but not as adept in shot-prevention.
Marco Rossi, MIN (Under 1.5 Shots)
Rossi has been a points machine lately for the Wild. He has eight points in his last eight games, which includes four goals. He’s been pretty successful on his shot attempts over that sample, sporting a 40% SH%. That’s unsustainable, but Wild fans and fantasy managers who Roster Rossi will take it for now.
However, the Wild are coming off a Friday night game against Anaheim (which they won 5-1). Thus, I think the Wild will be a little weary for a contest against a Kings team that has allowed only 22.7 Shots/G in the past two weeks, the best mark in the NHL. Despite Rossi’s point prowess, he’s only averaging 1.4 SOG/G over the past two weeks. Thus, he could be in store for a tough night in Los Angeles.
Connor Bedard, CHI (Over 2.5 Shots)
The Blackhawks fired coach Luke Richardson on Thursday, shaking up a club currently ranked last in the Central division with 18 points. It’s been a tough year for Bedard, who only is averaging 0.73 PTS/G, which is down from his 0.90 mark last season. He also is on a 60-point pace over 82 games, and his SH% is 7.4%. Both marks show a significant decline from 2023-2024. However, we have seen from the Bruins and Blues examples that teams have experienced a bump after a coaching change, and Bedard could be one to benefit from Chicago’s shuffle.
The teenage center has averaged 2.2 SOG/G in his last six games despite the Blackhawks’ struggles. Furthermore, Chicago will face a Jets team that stops shots (2.88 GA/G in the previous two weeks) but gives up a lot of shots. Winnipeg has given up 31.3 SA/G, the third-highest rate allowed in the last two weeks. Thus, even if Bedard doesn’t generate the points today at home against the Jets, he should be able to get over that 2.5-shot mark.
Sebastian Aho, CAR (Under 2.5 Shots)
Aho has been on fire in the past two weeks. He has 11 points in his last seven games, suitable for an average of 1.57 Pts/G. Over that span, he’s sporting a 13% SH%, 2.6 SOG/G, and a 7.4 SOG/60. He also has a 68.8% IPP and 60.8% Corsi. These metrics show that he’s impacting the Hurricanes’ scoring when he’s on the ice and getting a lot of shot opportunities with his current line (primarily Jack Roslovic and Andrei Svechnikov).
Conversely, his 5-on-5 SH% is just eight percent in the last two weeks, a little low considering his high Corsi and points. Furthermore, Carolina travels to Long Island on Saturday to take on an Islanders team that only allowed 24.4 SA/G, and it tied for the second-lowest mark in the NHL over the past two weeks. If the Islanders can limit the PIM tonight, it may be challenging for Aho (and his linemates) to get shots. Because of these factors, I’m picking the Finnish center to be under the 2.5-shot mark today.
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