Underdog Fantasy Champions Picks for December 14th

Four Players to Pick for Saturday's NHL Slate

It was another two-for-four week last Saturday in my Underdog Fantasy Champions Picks.

Here’s how I fared on my four-player selections, as I focused on the shots category in the previous week.

• Marco Rossi, MIN, Lower 1.5 Shots: Hit (only one shot)

• John Taveras, TOR, Higher 3.5 Shots: Hit (four shots)

• Sebastian Aho, CAR, Lower 2.5 Shots: Miss (three shots)

• Connor Bedard, CHI, Higher 2.5 Shots: Miss (zero shots)

I hit two and only missed one by 0.5 shot (Aho). My only lousy pick was Bedard, who did his best to create offense for his teammates but couldn’t get shot opportunities for himself against a tough Winnipeg Jets team.

This week’s post will focus on points for my Champions picks. Thus, let’s look at two players who could earn more points than their projected marks and two who may fall below those projected marks on this Saturday's NHL slate, which includes 15 games.

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Mark Stone, VGK, Higher 0.5 Points

Stone has been on a hot streak with 14 points in his last ten games, including four goals. He’s cooled off a bit in the previous week, with zero goals in three games. However, he had two assists and a 66.7% IPP over that timespan, showing that he’s a heavy contributor to a line that includes Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev. The Stone-Eichel-Barbashev line only had a 37.5% SF% in their last game against the Jets but had a 64.3 CF%.

The trio should bounce back, generate more shot opportunities, and cash in more often against a slightly worse Oilers defense (2.79 GA/G), which should help Stone acquire at least a point on Saturday.

Vince Dunn, SEA, Lower 0.5 Points

The Kraken’s top defenseman and Power Play quarterback is on a hot streak, as he has two goals and three points in his last four games. However, his shot % in his previous four games is high at 18.2%, which correlates with his 14.3% SH% for the season. Dunn has a career SH% of 7.4%, including 9.2% last year and 9.4% in 2022-2023. Thus, some regression may come on the shooting percentage end, and Dunn doesn’t collect enough assists (0.55 Assists/G) to maintain his 0.91 PTS/G season average.

Hence, Dunn's regression may start tonight, especially against a tough Tampa Bay blue line that has only allowed 25.2 shots per game in the last two weeks, the fourth-best mark in the NHL.

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Rickard Rakell, PIT, Higher 0.5 Points

There hasn’t been a more productive line in the last three games than Pittsburgh’s first unit, which includes Rakell, Sidney Crosby, and Bryan Rust.

The Penguins line has collected five goals in their previous three games, with Rakell scoring three goals and collecting six points in his last four. Rakell is having quite the stretch, averaging 1.50 PTS/G and sporting a 20% SH% over that four-game sample, which feels unsustainable. Conversely, Rakell is producing one of his best offensive seasons in a while, averaging 0.71 PTS/G and being on pace for 58 points over 82 GP.

It’s easy to see Rakell and his linemates continue the productive vibes tonight in Ottawa, even against a Senators defense that has only allowed 2.29 goals per game in the last two weeks. After a physical game on Friday night against the Hurricanes in Raleigh, I’m predicting an off night for the Senators, with the Penguins and Rakell being the primary beneficiaries in fantasy.

Mika Zibanejad, NYR, Lower 0.5 Points

The Swedish center has recently been one of the few bright spots for the Rangers, scoring six points in his last six games. Unlike some other skaters I have looked at in this Champions Picks post, Zibanejad’s 8.3% SH% is not far off from his season SH% of 9.7%. Hence, Zibanejad could be a candidate for positive regression in the coming week or two.

So why am I picking him to get shut out points-wise in this one?

I’m not sold on his line with Reilly Smith and Chris Kreider. They sported a 28% CF% in their last game against Buffalo and have a 47% CF% together for the season. That’s not promising for today’s matchup against the Kings, who have recently been one of the best defenses in the league. Their 1.67 GA/G and 25 SA/G marks in the last two weeks rank 1st and 3rd in the NHL over that time span. Thus, expect points to be hard to come by for the Rangers and Zibanejad at Madison Square Garden.

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